The Scramble for Eurasia
Russia – in the long run – is in decline and should rethink its policies towards the Former Soviet Union.
Crimea’s Tatars in Historical Perspective
BY ELANUR URAL Prior to 2014, both Crimea and the Tatars were relatively unknown names to household news in the West. Now they are mentioned almost daily, most recently in the apprehension of ex-TV star and the newly elected Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s policy on the region.[1] Here’s a brief
Kazakhstan’s Atomic Lake: What You Should Know
BY ELANUR URAL VICE’s crew visited it with protective suits, but David Farrier of Netflix’s Dark Tourist jumped right in after a shot of vodka. Kazakhstan’s ‘Atomic Lake’, though sitting for decades, has re-reared its head into the media. Here’s what you need to know about its peculiar history. The
China’s Rise and Its Anxious Neighbors
BY AUSTEN DOWELL While American foreign-policy experts and politicians are consumed with the threat of the so-called “rise of China” to US regional and global interests, it is easy to forget that other countries have to navigate their own complex relationships with the People’s Republic without the luxury of immense
Is America Prepared for Changes in Asia?
BY ERIK KHZMALYAN & ARMEN V. SAHAKYAN For the first time in its history, the United States is facing a situation where it has to deal with three simultaneously rising powers in Asia – India, China, and Japan. America’s future in the region will be determined by how it positions
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization: A Beginner’s Guide
BY DANIEL ROSSELL-EVANS Shanghai Cooperation Organization Introduction The end of this year’s G7 Summit in Canada provoked images of an alliance divided, with key partners airing their grievances in public. The same day, a very different summit was held in China by a wholly different alliance (Putz, 2018). Covering huge
Uzbekistan’s Pivot to Regional Engagement
BY AUSTEN DOWELL Nowhere is Uzbekistan’s constant juggling act between advancing national security interests and producing much-needed economic growth so readily apparent as at its long Ferghana Valley border. Foreign policy under the authoritarian former president of Uzbekistan, Islam Karimov, often seemed to prefer economic and political isolation over collaboration
Cracking the Turkish Hazelnut Market
BY ELANUR URAL Filbert, fındık, call it what you will: Turkish hazelnuts are about to flood the international market. Turkey has a near monopoly on hazelnuts, producing about 70% of the world’s supply in recent years. With over 200 processing facilities and more than 300 companies devoted to storing and
An Alliance within an Alliance II: CANZUK, the Intermarium, and the Rise of Parallel, Unofficial Defense Structures
BY STEVEN M. LUBER Introduction “It is a profound honor to stand in this city, by this monument to the Warsaw Uprising, and to address the Polish nation that so many generations have dreamed of: a Poland that is safe, strong, and free…” “Now, among the most committed members of
The Future of Transatlantic Economic Relations: Back to Multilateralism?
BY DAVIT SAHAKYAN (Op-Ed Contributor) Last week’s NATO summit in Brussels and President Trump’s first official visit to the UK were to reveal the state of transatlantic relations and rekindle the bond between allies on the both sides of the Atlantic. Instead, they revealed that transatlantic relations—and especially their economic
Are Russo-American Relations at an Impasse?
BY SEAN CROWLEY Following the end of the Cold War and the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the United States moved to fill the security vacuum left in the post-communist space. It brought some former Warsaw Pact and Soviet states into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and was public
Why Him? Understanding the Female Support Behind Erdogan
BY ELANUR URAL On a global scale, it is difficult to understand why there are substantial numbers of women in particular subscribing to the hyper masculine, strongman leader brand. This concept can be observed in the Chinese female backing of Xi Jinping; in Russia with its ‘Babushkas for Putin’ troupe;
Lobbying the European Union: Between Praise and Criticism
BY GALYA HOVHANNISYAN (Op-Ed Contributor) Lobbying is a practice to influence decision-making and public policy outcomes — a practice of public affairs management. A lot of lobbying takes place to amend a piece of legislation or to influence a public policy area. Lobbying is a well known practice in many countries
Infiltrating Europe: Russia, Turkey, and European Insecurity
BY ALEXANDER GALITSKY This is the first in a two-part series examining European perceptions of two resurgent Eurasian states – Russia and Turkey – in the context of their efforts to destabilize the European Union. The first part will consider the role of the populist right in mobilizing public sentiment and
Sanctions and the Iranian Ideology of Resistance
BY ALEXANDER GALITSKY If the imposition of a punitive sanctions regime on Iran was designed as a means of compelling behavioral change, it represents a severe misunderstanding of a political ideology that thrives on resistance. This story is a common one in the chequered history of economic sanctions; while generally
Progressive Leadership in EU2018BG: Unpacking the Bulgarian EU Presidency in the Context of Enlargement
BY MILLIE RADOVIC Taking the helm of the Council of the European Union (EU) presidency on January 1st, the Bulgarian government spelled out four priorities for its six month term: the future of Europe and young people; improving relations with the Western Balkans; the completion of a competitive and fair
An Alliance within an Alliance: NATO’s Internal Divisions, and Prospects for a New Bloc in East-Central Europe
BY STEVEN LUBER The political divisions within the Euro-Atlantic space are no longer only apparent to careful observers. What was once only of interest to policy experts and security specialists has now begun to make major headlines. The North Atlantic alliance finds itself unable to find a central mission that
Is Iran Ready for Re-Entry into the Global Community?
BY STEWART KATO On May 19th, 2017, Iran held its twelfth presidential elections in which its people expressed readiness for economic and social reform as well as interest in rejoining the international community. The international community was quick to identify the election as a gauge of the popularity of the
New World Chaos: World Order That Never Started
BY CATHERINE MARKARYAN The contemporary world order finds its roots in the post-World War II environment when the victorious powers designed the international institutions and norms that went on to define the new rules of the game. 2016 marked the endpoint of this 70-year-long era that carried through the Cold
Syria and Global Powers: What Next?
BY STEWART KATO The Syrian conflict continues to affect the international community as regional and global powers struggle to stabilize the country. Entering its seventh year with 465,000 Syrians killed in fighting, a million injured, and over 12 million displaced from their homes, this conflict grew from peaceful protests of
United in Disloyalty
BY VAHAKEN MOURADIAN (Op-Ed Contributor) A supra-national identity has failed to take root among the citizens of the European Union’s member states, despite the inspired efforts of the project’s past and present champions. The departure of the British and the recent surge of parochialist
Baluchistan: Pakistan’s Long-Term Problem and India’s Strategic Opportunity
BY ERIK KHZMALYAN Pakistan’s struggle to keep the province of Baluchistan within its orbit has come with a heavy price. The ongoing insurgency, unequal distribution of revenue, ethnic disparities, and foreign interventions have exacerbated Islamabad’s problems with Baluch nationalism. Moreover, there are good reasons to believe that Baluch nationalists will
A Soft Power Tug of War for Georgia
BY STEVEN LUBER Russo-Turkish tensions captured international headlines in late 2015, when a Russian Sukhoi Su-24 was shot down by Turkish air defenses. Turkey testified before the United Nations Security Council that the Russian jet had repeatedly violated Turkish airspace and had ignored several warnings to withdraw. Russia has denied these
China’s Gamble in Central Asia: The Rise of Sino-Afghan Relations
BY ERIK KHZMALYAN Chinese-Afghan relations have achieved new milestones over the past few years. Beijing’s increasing involvement in Afghanistan has been manifested both militarily and economically. To ensure a safe economic corridor in Central Asia, China has boosted its influence to mitigate security concerns, promote stability, and develop Afghanistan’s mostly
The New National: Poland’s Ruling Party Attempts a Rebranding Campaign
BY NATALIA KOPYTNIK After over a year of a Law and Justice (PiS) government in Poland, two buzz words have infiltrated almost every area of public discussion. “Nationalism” and “patriotism” are omnipresent themes in rhetoric across all levels of government. Of course, the reconstruction and construction of national myths is
Russian Soft and Hard Power Revisited: Georgia’s Frozen Conflicts
BY ERIC JACKSON After the Soviet Union’s dissolution, interstate and intrastate warfare ensued due to re-emergent ethnic nationalism. In Georgia, this manifested in two separatist wars. The first occurred from 1991-92 in South Ossetia, whose capital Tskhinvali, is less than 60 miles north of Tbilisi. Under pressure from Boris Yeltsin,
Social Media as a Resource for Mobilization in the Electric Yerevan Protests
BY MARGARITA BAGHDASARYAN (Op-Ed Contributor) Paper poster may be accessed here: http://bit.ly/2md4nqD Electric Yerevan, the Movement On June 19, 2015 protesters gathered on the streets of Yerevan, Armenia to expresses their discontent about the Armenian Public Services Regulatory Commission’s decision to raise the price of electricity by 16.7%. The electricity price
Assertive Iran: The Rising Hegemon of the Middle East
BY ERIK KHZMALYAN The Islamic Republic’s muscle flexing in the Middle East is a sign of a new emerging regional hegemon. With a heavy reliance on its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Tehran has made it clear that it will project power in neighboring countries to advance Iran’s national interests.
Blowing the Whistle: Fighting Corruption in Western Balkan EU Candidates
BY JULIA GABRIEL Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia are facing critical junctures in their post-communist political development. These four Western Balkan nations, all current EU candidates, have made efforts to adopt whistleblower protection laws, an important step towards curbing corruption in the region. However, these regulations are rarely enforced and
Lost Friendship: A Historical Perspective of the Beginning of US-Russia Relations
BY ALEXANDER OSADTA If one were to look over US-Russia relations, it could be tempting to divide the history into two periods of time: the era of modern Russia starting in 1991, and the Cold War. During these two periods there were years when both countries could find a common
Duterte: Wildcards and Costless Signals
BY VAHE BOGHOSIAN In the weeks following the presidential election in America, it has been rather difficult to see news that does anything other than speculate on the future of American policy. However, a light-hearted video of ‘Karaoke Diplomacy’ managed to find its way into various news broadcasts showing the
The Southern Gas Corridor, a Broken EU Project: Recent Developments and Current Status
BY BABAKEN MATEVOSYAN, PHD The Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) is an initiative by the European Commission created in 2008, aimed at diversifying the EU’s natural gas supplies while easing dependency on Russia. Currently, imports from Russia account for approximately 30% of the EU’s overall demand (roughly 130 of 410 billion
Nationalism in Hungary’s Constitution
BY MICHAEL ZELLER The Western world is confronted with immense challenges. Complex, interconnected, and persistent—those challenges require simultaneously paying attention to details of socio-political developments and shrewd awareness of long-term consequences. Foremost among the perils to liberal democracy in Europe, closely connected to the ongoing immigration crisis and the resultant
An Armenian Paradox
BY VAHE BOGHOSIAN Armenia’s protest culture has shown seasonal patterns, with a protest movement emerging every summer. The protests from 2013 to 2016 have ranged from a variety of issues from transportation prices to pension reform and electricity prices.[1] Many commentators have been quick to note that the protests of
The Last Domino: Germany and the Alternative für Deutschland
BY MICHAEL ZELLER Contemporary European politics, from the Atlantic to the Urals, are conspicuous for the nearly widespread presence of major far-right political parties and movements. The recent British referendum on the EU (‘Brexit’) is the most impressive example yet of the impact of far-right socio-political mobilization. The creation of
A Russian Interest in Reopening the Lourdes SIGINT Station?
BY ALEXANDER OSADTA In the early 1960s, space age had just begun and technology development made its first steps. The Soviet Union wanted to be the first to take advantage of these technological advancements. With the consent and goodwill of its new Cuban allies, the Soviet Union began to install
Promise and Peril: Crisis Power Delegations in Ukraine
BY MICHAEL ZELLER Following the ouster of President Viktor Yanukovych, Ukraine was beset by conflict: scarred by the brutal means Yanukovych employed before absconding to Russia, adrift in a political vacuum, split, enduringly and perhaps increasingly, along an east-west divide. And to this unsettled condition was added the rebellion of
Splendid Isolation? – Evaluating the Security Implications of Brexit
BY VAHE BOGHOSIAN As the Brexit debate rages on in the UK it has become widely accepted that both sides seek to push their arguments through fearmongering. A large part of this fearmongering has been applied to notions of security post-Brexit, leading to intense questioning of what security is, and
Azerbaijan’s Indispensable Illusion
BY ALEXANDER GALITSKY (op-ed contributor) The foreign policy of Azerbaijan since its independence 25 years ago has been to exploit its advantageous geopolitical position through the construction and consolidation of a precarious network of regional alliances. However, Azerbaijan’s favorable geography is undermined by regional volatility. Its ethno-political alignment with Turkey, historical-cultural
Battle for the Base: How the Manas Basing Crisis Illustrated Russian Behavior in the Conduct of Foreign Affairs
BY MICHAEL ZELLER A number of Russia’s interests were confronted with a drastic change of circumstances in the wake of terrorist attacks on the United States in September 2001. Among these, the introduction of an American military presence in Central Asia was perhaps foremost. An event far-removed from the control
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization: A New World Power?
BY MARIYA PAK The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) intends to promote India and Pakistan to member state status during its annual summit this June, joining China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. This will transform the SCO into a huge regional organization that will cover more than 60 percent of
Is Political Islam Compatible with Democracy?
BY ANNA KRUGLOVA The past 10 to 15 years have been characterized by the rise of Islamic radicalism and extremism. An abundance of information about terrifying terrorist attacks committed by Muslims can be found across the media. Another popular narrative is the spread of dictatorships around the world. Most authoritarian
Armenian–Ukrainian Relations: Common Challenges and Different Visions
BY ARMENAK MINASYANTS & IRYNA BAKHCHEVA (Op-Ed Contributors) Ukraine is a strategically important partner country for Armenia despite the ongoing stalemate in bilateral political relations, which has appeared as a result of the Revolution of Dignity in Ukraine and the surprising accession of Armenia to the Eurasian Economic Union. The
Shifting Political Dynamics and Democratic Disillusionment in Hungary’s Political Youth
BY MICHAEL ZELLER Politics and governance is increasingly dynamic; development of rapid means of disseminating information, innovation of new modes of political mobilization, and diversification of both has destabilized previously durable political infrastructures. In democratic states, where political parties and the systems in which they operate have pluralized societies, the
Paradoxes of Rationality, Neoliberalism and International System in Modern Eurasia
BY BABKEN G. MATEVOSYAN, Ph.D. Many articles and analytical pieces about the IR in wider Eurasia, which tried to conclude 2015 and draw some predictions for 2016, brought me to one counter-intuitive question – was neoliberalism failing in 2015 Eurasia? It may seem absurd for a researcher from the first
Hobbes’s Leviathan: A Critique of the Omnipotent Sovereign
BY ERIK KHZMALYAN For centuries, Thomas Hobbes’s pessimistic outlook on the state of nature has been one of the dominant theories in political philosophy. Hobbes vehemently argued that the state of nature is so violent and brutal that humans should do everything possible to avoid it—even if it requires giving
Has Responsibility to Protect Impeded Effective Responses to Violent Conflicts?
BY ANNA KRUGLOVA The end of the twentieth and beginning of the twenty-first centuries have been marked by a focus on human rights within international relations and within responses to security challenges. Human dignity is the global community’s top priority. Humanitarian values are even seen as more important than the principle
IS: How Did It Emerge?
BY ANNA KRUGLOVA During the course of Syria’s civil war, a new terrorist group, ISIS, appeared from out of nowhere. Today, it is referred to as ‘one of the most dangerous terrorist groups in the world.’ [1] Furthermore, Al Qaeda has announced that it does not share any links with ISIS.
With Ukraine Unfinished, What Has Driven Putin to Intervene in Syria?
BY MICHAEL MORAN One of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s main objectives during his time in power has been to reestablish Russia as a major player in world affairs. Feeling disrespected since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has wanted a seat at the table and to be treated as
Understanding Putin’s Strategy: Projecting Power in Syria
BY ERIK KHZMALYAN Napoleon was right when he wisely noticed that “to know a nation’s geography is to know its foreign policy.” The saying is particularly valid for Russia whose recent geopolitical activities remind us of what Russian leaders have historically tried to achieve. It has been long embedded in
A 5-Point Agenda For The Western Balkans
BY ABDULLAH KHURAM (Op-Ed Contributor) Article was originally published by PoliTact: https://goo.gl/vo9bul The Balkan states have come a long way since the Yugoslav wars and the ethnic cleansing of the 90s. The region has improved both economically as well as politically. Slovenia and Croatia have become members of the EU while
Uncertainty in the Central and Southeastern Europe: Pursuit of Energy Security
BY Drd. BABKEN MATEVOSYAN In late June this year I was invited to a conference in Bucharest where experts and officials from across the region were discussing the regional energy developments, right after Azerbaijan, Romania, Georgia and Hungary officially reanimated the AGRI project (transportation of Azerbaijani natural gas to Constanta
Azerbaijan’s Foreign Policy Shift and the Threat of Isolation
BY ARMEN V. SAHAKYAN Article was originally published by the European Affairs: http://goo.gl/J4BHEq Over the course of the past 18 months a new foreign policy doctrine has emerged in the Republic of Azerbaijan. This shift was formally codified on December 3, 2014 in a largely unnoticed 50-page Russian language memo penned by
The Gordian Knot: Cyprus
BY KNARIK GASPARYAN In July 1974 Turkish armed forces invaded northern Cyprus in response of an earlier coupe d’état by the Greek Cypriots in favor of “Enosis”, or, in other words, unification of Cyprus with Greece. Over the next month, 40% of the island was captured by the Turkish military,
The Stable Instability of the Middle East
BY KNARIK GASPARYAN As Bahgat Korany interestingly points out Middle East as a region provides an intricate pattern of contradictory processes, political systems, religious beliefs, ethnic identities, as well as, supranational and supra-state movements. As a result, when analyzing history and politics of the region, when trying to find solutions
South Caucasus: a Security Gamble
BY KNARIK GASPARYAN After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the newly independent South Caucasian countries of Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan became once again the battleground for world powers to spread their geopolitical influence and to maximally use for their own strategic and economic advantage. Today South Caucasus is one
Should U.S. Policy in the Middle East continue to be based on a Pax Americana or must the U.S. reduce the level of its involvement in the region?
BY KNARIK GASPARYAN The Cold War era in the Middle East was marked by a subtle power contest between the USSR and the US. Driven by the need to contain the Soviet expansionism and influence as well as insure the free flow of oil to the west, the United States
Environmental Movements and Global Civil Activism
BY KNARIK GASPARYAN In this paper I am going to analyze the essential role played by the emerging global civil society in supporting domestic environmental movements, which go on and shape the national civil societies in new democracies. I will argue that environmental movements create conditions for semi-free, semi-oppressed societies
The Man and the System: How Leadership Changes Affect Foreign Policymaking in Authoritarian States
BY KNARIK GASPARYAN Most of the literature focusing on leadership and regime change in authoritarian political systems emphasizes the mass uprising as the main fear of an authoritarian leader, and gives the chief role in the survival of the regime to the personal survival of the dictator or the governing
The Arab-Israeli Conflict: an Overview
BY KNARIK GASPARYAN “To draw the boldest outline of the past is to make Israel’s basic case. To sketch the present is to see the Arab’s plight” (Bickerton, 3). The definition and framework in which a question is observed and its causes identified is the focal point from which an
Географическое измерение внешнеэкономических связей Грузии
BY KIRA KORNILOVA С провозглашением независимости внешнеполитический курс Грузии изменился. Новая власть расставила новые внешнеполитические акценты, сделав ставку на развитие более тесных отношений с европейскими странами. Одновременно Грузия вошла в состав СНГ, тем самым сохранив связи и с постсоветскими странами. Изменение политического курса сказалось и на сфере экономики. Помимо проведения
Economic Blockades and International Law: The Case of Armenia
BY ARMEN V. SAHAKYAN An adequate Armenian policy towards Turkey has spurred much debate, especially since the signing of the 2009 Armenia-Turkey protocols in Zurich. The opening of the border was considered one of the cornerstones of the protocols; thus, it is important to understand why the de-facto border was
Afghanistan After America: Ripples in Russia and the Caucasus
BY ARMEN V. SAHAKYAN AND VAHAN DILANYAN, PHD As the final pullout of US forces from Afghanistan approaches, uncertainties and security risks will shape the future of the country and its neighborhood. Leaving behind a small contingent of American and coalition troops for training and other non-combat missions, the Euro-Atlantic
Armenia’s Choice — A Different Path from Ukraine
BY ARMEN V. SAHAKYAN As the Ukrainian crisis threatens to bring simmering tensions to a boil, another former Soviet state, Armenia, recently faced with similar choices, is quiet. The core issue in both countries was having to choose between Europe and Russia. Both countries have strong ties to both the
A Different Narrative for the Armenian-Azerbaijani Conflict
BY ARMEN V. SAHAKYAN AND VILEN KHLGATYAN With the recent developments happening in and around Ukraine, Svante E. Cornell’s June 10 op-ed “Why America must step up its role in resolving Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict” attempts to compare the Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh in Armenian) conflict with Crimea. This attempted comparison disregards important
Poland: History, Politics, Economy, and Foreign Policy
BY ARMEN V. SAHAKYAN The Republic of Poland today is one of the major actors in the European Union, NATO, and regional as well as global affairs. This predominantly Catholic parliamentary democracy comprises 312,000 sq. kilometers sharing borders with seven states and has a population of more than 38 million.
Slim Options for the Republic of Georgia
BY ARMEN V. SAHAKYAN Although all eyes have been on Ukraine, many of the issues raised there are present in another former soviet republic—Georgia. Both Georgia and Ukraine border Russia and seek stronger ties with the West. In 2008 and 2014, Georgia and Ukraine respectively began experiencing increasing political and
Armenia’s Emerging New Foreign Policy
BY ARMEN V. SAHAKYAN Ukraine has been in the spotlight of the international media since President Viktor Yanukovich announced1 the suspension of the Association Agreement with the EU, just a week before it was due to be signed in Vilnius, Lithuania, in favor of deeper ties with Russia. The Nov. 21
Armenia’s Tectonic Shift to the East: Challenges and Possibilities
BY ARMEN V. SAHAKYAN Following the meeting in Moscow on September 3, the Presidents of Armenia and Russia signed a joint statement, which confirms Armenia’s desire to join the Customs Union (CU) and willingness to participate in the formation of the Eurasian Union (EAU) by 2015. The government of Armenia